![]() ![]() It’s possible Facebook conducted market research indicating a burning consumer desire for augmented and virtual reality, but it’s still outweighed by inconvenient sales numbers from actual reality. Even more key, we’re literally paid to use desktop work PCs while sitting at full attention. They’re a great benefit for multitasking in multiple screens and for use in 3D enterprise applications, such as AutoCAD. With that in mind, it’s more likely that VR/AR headsets will replace work-based desktop computers. VR/AR, by contrast, typically requires our full attention, interacting with content from a very specific sitting, standing, or even moving position. Just as often, we watch without fully watching, doing chores or other activities while occasionally glancing at the screen. We watch from different positions, from slouching across a couch to a standing yoga pose. However, they have largely replaced pocket cameras and digital music players, because smartphones are more convenient and easier to use for those purposes and, just as important, do not significantly change the underlying human interaction behavior.Ĭompare that with televisions: Primarily seen as an entertainment appliance, we often watch them with our brains set to off. I’m writing this essay with my Mac, so clearly smartphones haven’t replaced laptops. Generally speaking, new technology only exerts a replacement draw when it’s similar in functionality, form factor, and convenience to what currently exists. Sure, those devices may one day be replaced in the future - but only by similar devices. Register Here How device replacement actually worksĮven if VR and AR devices see mass growth, it’s a mistake to assume they will replace smartphones and televisions. (And being sunglasses, they are explicitly designed for a narrow range of use cases - mainly, while outside - and aren’t ready examples of the omnipresent AR glasses Zuckerberg describes.) ![]() While Snapchat Spectacles attracted much initial buzz, it’s way too early to know if they actually attract mass market sales. However, many of its 5 million+ shipped units were given away for free, and 5 million is still a fraction of the 100 million or so Samsung smartphones the headset was designed to work with. To be sure, Samsung Gear VR, which uses Oculus technology, is doing fairly well. Do I even need to mention the utter disaster of Google Glass?.Despite heavy promotion and media hype, Facebook’s Oculus Rift and other VR headsets are selling poorly, and their combined sales won’t total the installed base of a single major video game console for many years (if ever).The audience for televisions continues growing every year, locking consumers into a legacy, still-expensive technology.3D televisions, which also require glasses for the full effect, were a giant bust.3D movies, which require glasses, are declining in interest and admissions.There’s little to no evidence many people want augmented reality glasses (let alone contacts!), and copious evidence to the contrary. But while everyone in the audience around me nodded enthusiastically, I squirmed in my chair, resisting the urge to facepalm. “We all want glasses or eventually contact lenses that look and feel normal but let us overlay all kinds of information and digital objects on top of the real world,” he explained at the keynote, which I was fortunate enough to attend.
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